Every time one of these national reports come out the first thing everybody asks is "What about Fort Lauderdale? What about Florida?
As a result, figured we'd focus on the Florida numbers real quick.
Overall the chances of home prices declining in the state of Florida is ranked "Minimal." According to this report there is only an 8% chance property values might decline in the Sunshine State over the next two years.
Drilling down ever further, the chances home prices might decline in the Fort Lauderdale Metro Area is rated at 5%, obviously less than the statewide number.
What is interesting, however, is comparing that number to other Metros around Fort Lauderdale and throughout the state.
Miami and Miami Beach is actually at the top of the list of this report, with a 17% chance home values might decline as it works through a backlog of new Condos coming onto the market and supply and demand become more balanced.
Second on the list is West Palm Beach, Delray and Boca Raton, with a 12% chance property values might decline.
This report also stipulates what it considers the best real estate markets for Buyers, and a five cities around Florida and ranked in the Top 15: Port St. Lucie at 2; Cape Coral and Fort Myers at 7; West Palm, Delray and Boca at 8; Miami, Miami Beach and Kendall at 10; and Naples, Marco Island at 15.
You'll notice you don't see Fort Lauderdale on that list.
If you'd like to read a detailed analysis I did a couple years ago concerning the effect the continued population growth in Fort Lauderdale and Broward County is likely to have on our property values, click link below:
The likelihood of home price declines across the United States over the next two years remains unusually low at only 4 percent, according to the latest Arch MI Risk Index statistical model results reported in the Spring 2017 edition of The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMRSM) published by Arch Mortgage Insurance Company (“Arch MI”). This is down from an average, across all states and large cities, from 5% a year ago and 8% two years ago. Overall, risk was stable this quarter, with minor changes in the riskiest regions, which predominantly remain in the coal-, oil- or gas-producing areas. No state had greater than a 50% chance of home price declines, suggesting home price growth is likely and will be widely shared.
“The vast majority of housing markets across the nation remain healthy and are projected to stay that way through 2018,” said Dr. Ralph G. DeFranco, Global Chief Economist, Mortgage Services of Arch Capital Services Inc. ”Looking back at 2016, home prices grew 6% and rose in all 50 states. This year, conditions are in place for home prices to grow faster than incomes as a result of a tightening job market, still relatively low interest rates, tight supply and an overall shortage of housing.”
The HaMMR report, released today by Arch MI, a leading provider of private mortgage insurance and wholly owned subsidiary of Arch Capital Group Ltd., presents the state- and metro-level Arch MI Risk Index model results analyzing the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years, based on recent economic and housing market data. The report is posted on archmi.com/hammr.
The Spring 2017 edition also features a special report on Millenials’ mobility patterns and “Best Cities for Sellers and Buyers.” The latter is based on data from the Months’ Supply of Homes for Sales, which is the number of homes currently listed for sale divided by the number of homes sold last month. Nationwide, there are a third fewer homes listed for sale than normal, tilting the bargaining power in favor of sellers.
Detailed and interactive regional graphs and maps showing relative over- or undervalued home prices are also available at archmi.com/hammr.
On a state level, North Dakota, Wyoming and Alaska remain the three states most at risk of home prices declines. These states continue to be impacted by weak employment and home sales due to the unwinding of the energy boom or from high inventories of homes for sale.
North Dakota has an Arch MI Risk Index value of 38 (indicating a 38 percent chance of a price decline of any magnitude over the next two years), up slightly from a Risk Index value of 36 in the Winter 2017 report. Home sales are weak in the state and home price growth is decelerating. Additionally, home prices are high relative to their historical relationship to incomes.
Wyoming has an Arch MI Risk Index value of 36 compared to last quarter’s Risk Index value of 38. The state remains in recession due to the decline in mining employment, but the decline in total employment appears to be moderating.
Alaska has an Arch MI Risk Index value of 31, up modestly from 26 in last quarter’s report. The state of Alaska remains in recession due to declining oil production and significant state budget deficits. Home price growth is decelerating and declines in total employment have yet to stabilize.
© 2017 Yahoo Finance
Fort Lauderdale Real Estate Ranking One of Strongest Housing Markets in Florida
Home prices are up, and that’s not likely to change anytime soon—at least according to the recent Housing and Mortgage Market Review released by Arch MI on Tuesday.
The report, which presents a state- and metro-level Arch MI Risk Index based on economic and housing market data, showed the likelihood of overall housing price decreases across all U.S. states and major cities at just 4 percent over the next two years. Last year, likelihood of pricing declines was 5 percent and two years ago, it was at 8 percent.
The Risk Index showed risk for pricing drops was relatively stable across the country, with only minor changes in some of the heavy coal-, oil-, and gas-producing regions.
”The vast majority of housing markets across the nation remain healthy and are projected to stay that way through 2018,” said Dr. Ralph G. DeFranco, Global Chief Economist for Mortgage Services of Arch Capital Services Inc. “Looking back at 2016, home prices grew 6 percent and rose in all 50 states.”
According to the report, no single state had more than 50-percent chance of housing price drops over the next two years. This means home price growth will likely continue—and on a sweeping scale.
“This year, conditions are in place for home prices to grow faster than incomes as a result of a tightening job market, still relatively low interest rates, tight supply, and an overall shortage of housing,” DeFranco said.
If pricing declines do happen, they’re most likely in North Dakota, which had a 38 percent change of declines), Wyoming (36 percent), and Alaska (31 percent). All three are currently plagued with weak employment and low home sales, the report stated.
At a metro level, areas most likely to seeing price drops were: Miami and West Palm Beach, Florida; Baton Rouge and New Orleans, Louisiana; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma; Houston, Texas; Birmingham, Alabama; and Little Rock, Arkansas. Oklahoma City has the highest chances with 21 percent.
The report also included a section on millennials, particularly whether they’re really flocking to more urban areas like everyone seems to assume.
“It turns out that the percentages of millennials choosing to live in cities, suburbs, and rural areas are about the same as for the overall population,” the report stated. “The main obstacle to urban living for this group is likely the cost—few people starting their careers can afford to live in close-in areas (where housing costs have been rising fast for decades.)”
© 2017 DS News
Some Charts you might find interesting
Fort Lauderdale Home Price Index
The latest Standard & Poor's / Case-Shiller Home Price Index
for South Florida (the Fort Lauderdale, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach reporting area)
versus the U.S. Average
Median Sale Price History Single Family Homes in Fort Lauderdale (Broward)
Foreclosure Activity Top 10 States
Florida Foreclosures Drop 39%
Florida's 39% Reduction in Foreclosure Activity in 2015 was the sharpest decline of any state according to the Black Knight Financial Services Mortgage Monitor Report. Based upon current Foreclosure Sales activity Florida has only a 3 Year Pipeline
Year By Year Foreclosure Activity
Source: Black Knight Financial Services Mortgage Monitor Report, December 2015
Foreclosure Down 30% In Past Year
Foreclosure Rates, Broward County
(Run your mouse over the Zip Codes to see)
Year End Real Estate Market Reports
Click on the buttons to download a pdf of statistical reports.
Fort Lauderdale A Top Market for Home Appreciation
The Best Home Appreciation in The U.S.
Freddie Mac Fort Lauderdale HPI
Freddie Mac U.S. House Price Index
The latest Freddie Mac National House Price Index
Property Taxes vs. Median Price
Florida ranks 29th Among All States
(Click on Graphic Below to Call Up / Download Larger pdf Version)
The Best Fort Lauderdale Real Estate Agent